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Mendelson's To The Moon Stock Market Predictor

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The Space Shuttle program is now complete with the launch of the Atlantis on July 8, 2011 and there is not likely to be another manned spacecraft launch by the United States for the next three years.  But Americans might be launched in the future on Russian spacecraft and private spacecraft until the next American manned space program begins.  We still have the International Space Station and Americans are likely to take their turn in service there.  So, Mendelson's To The Moon Stock Market Predictor is not ready for retirement.

Different analysts over the years have developed different indicators or predictors for the stock market.  There is the Superbowl Predictor, and the Hemline Indicator, and the Triple Crown Predictor, and the January Indicator.  And now please consider Mendelson's To The Moon Stock Market Predictor which is a different way to know when to invest in the stock market.  As you'll see below this predictor has been right more than it's been wrong, but in the last couple of years it has suffered in part, I think, because America is no longer fascinated with our space program or manned space launches.  And so, space launches don't ignite American pride and bullish attitudes as they used to.

Updated July 11, 2011   Mendelson's To The Moon Stock Market Predictor says that the stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- also called the DJIA-- tends to rise on the day of a manned space launch.  Mendelson's To The Moon Stock Market Predictor has shown that is what usually happens.  But after several of the recent manned space shots, the stock market has fallen.  In part you can blame the economy --  even a manned space launch can't overcome the negative forces of the economy.  But another factor might be that manned space launches aren't as dramatic as they were.  In fact, the Shuttle program is now over.  And the era of a psychological boost from a manned space launch may have ended some time ago.

Mendelson's To The Moon Stock Market Predictor has had a long term average of working, despite the 62.29 point drop with the final launch of a Shuttle -- the Atlantis -- on July 11, 2011 when the Dow closed at 12,657.20 and the 47.38 point drop on May 15, 2011 when Endeavor was launched for its final flight and the Dow closed at 12,548.37.  Other recent launches also saw a loss.  There was the 37.28 point decline on February 24, 2011 when Discovery lifted off on its last mission.  There was another loss on a launch day-- the 162.79 point drop on May 14, 2010 when the Atlantis was launched.  On May 14, 2010 the Dow closed at 10,620.16.

Here are some of the results for some other previous launches:  On April 5, 2010 with the launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery, the Dow gained 46.48 points to close at 10,973.55.  This launch and rally followed a rally of 136.49 points on November 16, 2009 with the launch of the Shuttle Atlantis.

But there was a modest loss of 36.43 points for the Dow on August 29, 2009 when the Shuttle Discovery was launched just a minute before midnight.  And there was a big rally on the day of the launch before that, on Wednesday July 15, 2009 when the Space Shuttle Endeavor was sent up and the Dow rose 256.72 to 8616.21.

The Predictor has been right on target many times, but mostly during the earlier years of the space program when America and the world was fascinated with every launch and with every mission.

My research has shown that since the first Mercury Program manned space shot in 1961 the DJIA has gone up 74 times on launch days while it has gone down on 60 launch days. While the predictor is not perfect, a ratio of 74 to 60, or a bit better than 7 to 6 is still better than what you can get in Vegas. The experts at casino games say the best odds in Vegas are a little less than 50-50, and favoring the house by a fraction.  Odds of 74-60 would make the gamblers envious.

The 74 up days rocketed the Dow for a total of 3792.95 points or a daily average gain of 51.26 points. The 74 up days include the launch of a Soviet spacecraft on March 14, 1995 with an American astronaut on board.  On that day the Dow gained 23.52 points.

The 60 down days set back the Dow a total of 2630.82 points or a daily average of 43.85 points. The biggest down day was November 14, 2008 when the Dow plunged 338 points during the big stock market sell-off of the recession.  While that was a big one-day point loss, it was modest on a percentage basis.

On October 29, 1998 when John Glenn returned to space aboard a shuttle, 36 years after orbiting the Earth as a Mercury Astronaut, the Dow rocketed up by 123.06 points and that was one of the best one day gains for the Dow on the launch date of any space mission.

On Tuesday, March 11, 2008 the Dow gained more than 416 points which was the single best gain on a launch day.  Most of the mainstream media on that day noted that the market rallied because of a change in Federal Reserve policy regarding lending to financial institutions.  On Friday, March 1, 2002, the Dow rocketed up by 262.73 points which was the second best gain ever for the Dow on the day of a manned space launch.

The Dow's third best performance on a launch day happened on July 15, 2009 when it gained 256.72 points.

The Gemini Space Program was the best for Wall Street and for the Predictor. There were eight launches on trading days and the Dow rose on seven out of those eight days.

To date, the Dow has a net gain of 1162.13 points on launch days, which is about 9-percent of the Dow's current total value.  Think about that: about 9-percent of the Dow's value came on launch days.

Why would this happen?  Maybe what's good for science is good for business, and helps to boost bullishness on Wall Street.  Success in space can increase confidence on the ground.

I first caught on to a link between manned space launches and stock market gains back in the 1960's when I would watch TV coverage of launches. My dad would watch TV with me and tell me how this company or that company had something to do with the rocket or the capsule. The next day, I would notice in the newspaper how those company stocks gained on the day of the launch. This was the seed of the Mendelson To The Moon Stock Market Predictor. It wasn't until the 1980's that I made a formal study of the connection and have updated it ever since.

The launch of December 5, 2001 was the first space launch since 9-Eleven, and it was another sign that America was "getting back to normal" after the terrorist attacks of September 11th.  On December 5th, the Dow gained 220.45 points.

The launch on October 7, 2002 saw a drop of 105.57 points and the bear market could be to blame; the January 16, 2003 launch which resulted in the tragic loss of the Shuttle and crew had a loss of 25.31 points for the Dow.

Here on our new media website "Moneyman" Alan Mendelson who is the original Best Deals TV Show reporter on KCAL9 and consumer advocate, shows you the best deals on TV, and the best buys, bargains and where savvy shoppers go to save, and how to get the most for "your money" with the best of Los Angeles, Orange County, Ventura County, Riverside County and San Bernardino County.  Our Best Buys TV Show has the best TV deals and is the only regularly scheduled weekly best deals TV show in Southern California.  We show you the best buys and best deals on TV and more deals and bargains on www.alanbestbuys.com and www.bestbuystvshow.com and watch for our Las Vegas TV show Vegas Best Buys.  Some of the content can come from paid advertising and from our advertiser paid TV infomercial programs.  The Best Buys TV Show is a paid infomercial program which may also include news and information which is not sponsored or paid for by advertisers.  AlanBestBuys.com has the highest ranking among competitive sites in Southern California according to the independent website ranking companies Alexa.com and Quantcast.com and our Best Buys TV Show is the most watched shopping and consumer information show in Southern California.

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